Tokar soda tana taka muhimmiyar rawa a masana'antu da dama, inda masana'antar gilashi ke da kusan kashi 60% na yawan amfani da ita a duniya.
Gilashin takarda shine mafi girman ɓangaren kasuwar gilashi, kuma gilashin kwantena shine kashi na biyu mafi girma a kasuwar gilashi (Hoto na 1). Gilashin sarrafa hasken rana da ake amfani da shi a cikin allunan hasken rana shine yanki mafi saurin bunƙasa.
A shekarar 2023, karuwar bukatar kasar Sin za ta kai kashi 10% a tarihi, tare da karuwar tan miliyan 2.9. Bukatar duniya ba tare da kasar Sin ba ta ragu da kashi 3.2%.
Yawan samar da tokar soda zai kasance mai karko tsakanin 2018 da 2022, domin an jinkirta ayyukan fadada da dama da aka tsara saboda annobar COVID-19. A gaskiya ma, kasar Sin ta rasa karfin tokar soda a wannan lokacin.
Duk da haka, mafi girman ci gaba a nan gaba zai fito ne daga kasar Sin, gami da tan miliyan 5 na sabbin samar da kayayyaki masu rahusa (na halitta) wanda zai fara karuwa a tsakiyar shekarar 2023.
An gudanar da dukkan manyan ayyukan fadada a Amurka a 'yan kwanakin nan ta hannun Genesis, wanda zai iya samar da jimlar tan miliyan 1.2 nan da karshen shekarar 2023.
Nan da shekarar 2028, ana sa ran za a ƙara tan miliyan 18 na sabon ƙarfin lantarki a duk duniya, inda kashi 61% daga China da kuma kashi 34% daga Amurka.
Yayin da ƙarfin samarwa ke ƙaruwa, tushen fasaha ma yana canzawa. Kason ash na soda na halitta a cikin sabon ƙarfin samarwa yana ƙaruwa. Ana sa ran kasonsa a cikin yawan samar da kayayyaki na duniya zai kai kashi 22% nan da shekarar 2028.
Kudin samar da tokar soda ta halitta gabaɗaya ya yi ƙasa sosai fiye da na tokar soda ta roba. Saboda haka, canje-canje a yanayin fasaha suma suna canza yanayin farashin duniya. Gasar ta dogara ne akan wadata, kuma yanayin sabon ƙarfin aiki zai shafi gasa.
Tokar Soda sinadari ne na asali da ake amfani da shi a aikace-aikacen ƙarshe wanda ke da alaƙa da rayuwarmu ta yau da kullun. Don haka, karuwar buƙatar tokar soda a al'ada ta samo asali ne daga ƙasashe masu tasowa. Duk da haka, buƙatar tokar soda ba ta samuwa ne kawai ta hanyar ci gaban tattalin arziki ba; ɓangaren muhalli kuma yana ba da gudummawa sosai ga ci gaban buƙatar tokar soda.
Duk da haka, cikakken ikon da soda ash ke da shi a cikin waɗannan aikace-aikacen ƙarshe yana da wuya a iya hasashensa. Damar amfani da soda ash a cikin batura, gami da batirin lithium-ion, yana da sarkakiya.
Haka lamarin yake ga gilashin hasken rana, kuma hukumomin makamashi na duniya suna ci gaba da sake duba hasashen makamashin hasken rana a sama.
Kasuwanci yana taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen samar da tokar soda, domin cibiyoyin samarwa ba koyaushe suke kusa da yankunan da ake yawan buƙata ba, kuma kusan kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu na tokar soda ana jigilar su tsakanin manyan yankuna.
Amurka, Turkiyya da China muhimman kasashe ne a masana'antar saboda tasirinsu a kasuwar jigilar kaya. Ga masu samar da kayayyaki na Amurka, buƙatar kasuwannin fitar da kayayyaki ita ce babbar hanyar haɓaka tattalin arziki fiye da kasuwar cikin gida mai girma.
A al'adance, masana'antun Amurka suna haɓaka samar da kayayyaki ta hanyar ƙara yawan fitar da kayayyaki, wanda ke taimakawa ta hanyar tsarin farashi mai gasa. Manyan kasuwannin jigilar kaya sun haɗa da sauran Asiya (ban da China da yankin Indiya) da Kudancin Amurka.
Duk da ƙarancin kaso a cinikin duniya, China tana da tasiri sosai a kasuwar soda ash ta duniya saboda sauyin da aka samu a fitar da ita, kamar yadda muka gani a wannan shekarar.
Kamar yadda aka ambata a sama, kasar Sin ta kara yawan karfin da take da shi a shekarar 2023 da 2024, wanda hakan ya kara yawan tsammanin samar da kayayyaki da yawa, amma kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga kasar Sin sun kai matsayin da ba a taba ganin irinsa ba a rabin farko na shekarar 2024.
A lokaci guda kuma, fitar da kayayyaki daga Amurka ya karu da kashi 13% a kowace shekara a cikin watanni biyar na farko na wannan shekarar, inda mafi girman ribar ta fito daga China.
Ci gaban buƙatu a China a shekarar 2023 zai yi ƙarfi sosai, wanda zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 31.4, galibi ana amfani da gilashin sarrafa hasken rana.
Yawan tokar soda a kasar Sin zai karu da tan miliyan 5.5 a shekarar 2024, wanda ya zarce hasashen da ake yi na sabon bukatar nan gaba.
Duk da haka, karuwar buƙatu ta sake zarce yadda ake tsammani a wannan shekarar, inda buƙatu ke ƙaruwa da kashi 27% a shekara-shekara a rabin farko na shekarar 2023. Idan ƙimar ci gaban da ake da ita a yanzu ta ci gaba, gibin da ke tsakanin wadata da buƙata a China ba zai ƙara yin yawa ba.
Kasar na ci gaba da kara karfin samar da gilashin hasken rana, inda ake sa ran jimillar karfin zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 46 nan da watan Yulin 2024.
Duk da haka, hukumomin kasar Sin suna damuwa game da yawan karfin samar da gilashin hasken rana kuma suna tattaunawa kan manufofi masu tsauri. A lokaci guda, karfin hasken rana da kasar Sin ta sanya ya karu da kashi 29% a kowace shekara daga watan Janairu zuwa Mayun 2024, a cewar Hukumar Makamashi ta Kasa.
Duk da haka, an ruwaito cewa masana'antar kera na'urorin PV na China na aiki ba tare da wani dalili ba, wanda hakan ya sa wasu ƙananan masana'antun haɗa na'urorin suka daina aiki ko ma suka daina samarwa.
A lokaci guda, kudu maso gabashin Asiya tana da adadi mai yawa na na'urorin haɗa ...
An ruwaito cewa wasu masana'antun haɗaka sun dakatar da samarwa kwanan nan saboda gwamnatin Amurka ta ɗage hutun harajin shigo da kaya. Manyan wuraren fitar da gilashin hasken rana na China sune ƙasashen kudu maso gabashin Asiya.
Duk da cewa karuwar bukatar soda ash a kasar Sin ta kai wani matsayi mai kyau, yanayin bukatar soda ash a wajen kasar Sin ya fi bambanta. Ga taƙaitaccen bayani game da buƙatu a sauran kasashen Asiya da Amurka, wanda ke bayyana wasu daga cikin wadannan yanayi.
Kididdigar shigo da kaya daga ƙasashen waje tana ba da wata alama mai amfani ta yadda ake buƙatar ash ɗin soda a sauran ƙasashen Asiya (ban da China da yankin Indiya) saboda ƙarancin ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki na gida.
A cikin watanni biyar zuwa shida na farko na shekarar 2024, shigo da kayayyaki daga yankin ya kai tan miliyan 2, wanda ya fi kashi 4.7% fiye da na wannan lokacin a bara (Hoto na 2).
Gilashin hasken rana shine babban abin da ke haifar da buƙatar tokar soda a sauran sassan Asiya, kuma gilashin takarda shima yana iya bayar da gudummawa mai kyau.
Kamar yadda aka nuna a Hoto na 3, akwai shirye-shiryen samar da wutar lantarki ta hasken rana da kuma gilashin lebur da dama a yankin da za su iya ƙara kusan tan miliyan 1 na sabbin buƙatun tokar soda.
Duk da haka, masana'antar gilashin hasken rana tana fuskantar wasu ƙalubale. Harajin da aka sanya kwanan nan kamar hana zubar da kaya da kuma harajin da Amurka ta sanya na iya shafar samar da na'urorin hasken rana a ƙasashe kamar Vietnam da Malaysia.
Harajin da ake biya kan sassan da aka yi a China yana buƙatar masana'antun waɗannan ƙasashe su samo muhimman kayan aiki daga masu samar da kayayyaki a wajen China don guje wa hauhawar farashin kaya. Wannan yana ƙara farashin samarwa, yana rikitar da sarkar samar da kayayyaki, kuma a ƙarshe zai raunana ƙarfin gasa na bangarorin PV na Kudu maso Gabashin Asiya a kasuwar Amurka.
An ruwaito cewa wasu masu haɗa faifan PV na ƙasar Sin a kudu maso gabashin Asiya sun dakatar da samarwa a watan Yuni saboda harajin, tare da yiwuwar ƙarin dakatar da samarwa a cikin watanni masu zuwa.
Yankin Amurka (ban da Amurka) ya dogara sosai kan shigo da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje. Saboda haka, sauye-sauyen da ake samu a shigo da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje na iya zama kyakkyawan alama na buƙatar da ake buƙata.
Sabbin bayanan ciniki sun nuna rashin ingancin shigo da kaya daga ƙasashen waje a cikin watanni biyar zuwa bakwai na farko na shekara, wanda ya ragu da kashi 12%, ko kuma tan 285,000 na metric (Hoto na 4).
Arewacin Amurka, zuwa yanzu, ya ga mafi girman raguwa, ƙasa da kashi 23% ko tan 148,000. Mexico ta ga mafi girman raguwa. Babban ɓangaren buƙatar ash na soda a Mexico, gilashin kwantena, ya yi rauni saboda ƙarancin buƙatar abubuwan sha. Ba a sa ran buƙatar ash na soda a Mexico za ta ƙaru ba har sai 2025.
Kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga Kudancin Amurka suma sun fadi sosai, da kashi 10% a shekara. Kayayyakin da ake shigowa da su daga Argentina sun ragu mafi yawa, da kashi 63% a shekara.
Duk da haka, tare da sabbin ayyukan lithium da aka tsara za su fara aiki a wannan shekarar, ya kamata shigo da kayayyaki daga Argentina ya inganta (Hoto na 5).
A gaskiya ma, lithium carbonate shine babban abin da ke haifar da buƙatar ash na soda a Kudancin Amurka. Duk da mummunan ra'ayi da aka yi kwanan nan game da masana'antar lithium a matsayin yanki mai rahusa, hangen nesa na matsakaici da na dogon lokaci yana da kyau.
Farashin fitar da kaya daga manyan masu samar da kayayyaki yana nuna canje-canje a cikin yanayin kasuwar duniya (Hoto na 6). Farashin a China ya fi canzawa.
A shekarar 2023, matsakaicin farashin fitar da kaya daga China ya kai dala $360 a kowace tan na FOB, kuma a farkon shekarar 2024, farashin ya kai dala $301 a kowace tan na FOB, kuma zuwa watan Yuni, ya fadi zuwa dala $264 a kowace tan na FOB.
A halin yanzu, farashin fitar da kaya daga Turkiyya ya kai dala $386 ga kowace tan na FOB a farkon shekarar 2023, dala $211 kacal ga kowace tan na FOB kafin Disamba 2023, kuma dala $193 ga kowace tan na FOB kafin Mayu 2024.
Daga watan Janairu zuwa Mayu 2024, matsakaicin farashin fitar da kaya daga Amurka ya kai dala $230 a kowace tan na FAS, ƙasa da matsakaicin farashin shekara-shekara na $298 a kowace tan na FAS a shekarar 2023.
Gabaɗaya, masana'antar tokar soda kwanan nan ta nuna alamun ƙarancin aiki. Duk da haka, idan za a iya ci gaba da samun ƙaruwar buƙata a yanzu a China, yuwuwar wadatar da mai ba ta da yawa ba za ta yi tsanani kamar yadda ake tsammani ba.
Duk da haka, yawancin wannan ci gaban yana fitowa ne daga ɓangaren makamashi mai tsabta, wani rukuni wanda ke da wahalar hasashen yuwuwar buƙatarsa ​​daidai.
Sashen leƙen asiri kan kasuwar sinadarai na OPIS, Dow Jones & Company, zai karbi bakuncin taron duniya na Soda Ash karo na 17 a Malta daga 9-11 ga Oktoba na wannan shekarar. Jigon taron na shekara-shekara shine "The Soda Ash Paradox".
Taron Duniya na Soda Ash (duba hagu) zai tattaro kwararru na duniya da shugabannin masana'antu daga dukkan sassan kasuwa don jin hasashen kwararru game da masana'antar soda ash da sauran masana'antu masu alaƙa, tattauna yanayin kasuwa, ƙalubale da damammaki, da kuma bincika tasirin sauye-sauyen yanayin kasuwa na duniya, gami da yadda kasuwar China za ta shafi duniya.
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Jess ita ce Mataimakiyar Edita ta Glass International. Ta yi karatun rubuce-rubuce masu ƙirƙira da ƙwarewa tun daga shekarar 2017 kuma ta kammala digirinta a shekarar 2020. Kafin ta shiga Quartz Business Media, Jess ta yi aiki a matsayin marubuci mai zaman kansa ga kamfanoni da wallafe-wallafe daban-daban.